Discuss the recent changes of distributed PV

"The oversupply of upstream silicon material, the gradual release of superimposed new capacity, silicon material prices continue to decline, affected by the upstream supply chain, after the SNEC exhibition in Shanghai, the price of components is also significantly decreased, the lowest offer of 1.4 CNY. In addition, some provinces represented by Zhejiang industrial and commercial electricity prices have been adjusted to varying degrees, and the difference between industrial and commercial electricity prices has gradually widened.

The return on investment of distributed power stations is undergoing some positive changes as component costs are reduced and the difference between industrial and commercial electricity prices is gradually widening. Will the household business model change? Are investors and owners more enthusiastic about investing in industrial and commercial projects?"


Wang Shujuan, the founder of Zhihui Photovoltaic and an analyst of the photovoltaic industry, first shared the current situation of the development of the domestic photovoltaic market at this stage, and some key points are summarized as follows:

1.1
China PV market overall situation

From January to April 2023, the domestic photovoltaic installed capacity of 48.36GW, an increase of 181%, accounting for 57% of the total installed power in the first four months.

From January to April 2023, distributed PV added 25.8GW, an increase of 121%. Ground power stations added 22.6GW, an increase of 310%.

1.2
Household photovoltaic market development overview

Shandong, Hebei and Henan provinces are still the main provinces of new PV installed capacity in the country; The market of the second tier provinces grows rapidly and becomes the main body of the incremental market. The key market for household PV has shifted significantly from North China to the south.



1.3
Industrial and commercial photovoltaic market development overview

Industrial and commercial PV is closely related to the local economic level, the economically developed will have industrial and commercial PV development soil, so Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong this economic province of industrial and commercial PV development is very good, these provinces installed more than 1GW in the first quarter of this year.

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In the past two years, household photovoltaic, as an important force in the two national strategies of energy transformation and rural revitalization, has gradually moved to the center of the energy reform stage. With the advantages of rich scenes, broad market and large-scale replication, it has tens of millions of potential users and a very broad market space.

2.1

Local governments have become more involved in the market

More and more places need to use the project company filing method to connect to the grid, on the one hand, it will increase management and tax costs, on the other hand, the establishment of project companies will increase the difficulty of platform operators, while reducing the channel's ability to influence the market, reduce the degree of market competition. In order to respond to market trends, Gootu is also actively laying out, setting up a number of project companies in the mainstream market, or proactively responding to market changes together with the management.

2.2
Capacity and absorption problems

In traditional areas such as Henan, northern Anhui and Hebei, transformer capacity and grid consumption have already appeared bottlenecks, and new forms of energy access, such as energy storage, are on the horizon. As component prices fall, the cost of the promotion side gradually returns to normal, and there is an opportunity to add energy storage on the grid-connected side. The emergence of new forms will bring the second development of the market, Gootu's household storage products have been widely recognized in the world, we have been actively making corresponding preparations, with the implementation of government and power grid policies, it is expected that there will be a large-scale landing in the second half of the year.


2.3

Application of new products

The drop in component prices will accelerate the iteration of new products, such as the use of N-type components will increase rapidly, and Gootu has planned to switch N-type components on a large scale in the next month or two. At the same time, at the household level, BIPV products will also bring better promotion conditions with the decline in component prices.

Overall, the decline in component prices and kilowatt-hour costs is good for the household market, which provides a source of power for the diversification of the market and long-term healthy development. As a household photovoltaic brand under Jiesai, with the advantage of the group's all-scene industry, Gootu has always maintained a positive response to market changes, and will certainly bring more surprises to the industry and users.



Pain points in the development of industrial and commercial distributed projects:

1) Affected by the policies promoted by the whole county, the local development and Reform Commission restricted the filing

2) Due to the influence of power grid consumption, local power grids restrict access

3.1 Changes in business model

Due to yield and professional considerations, the previous choice of contract energy management model, more by the third party investment, but this year the component price fell from 1.9 CNY at the beginning of the year to 1.4 CNY, the return on investment has increased by 1%, resulting in more rooftop investment. In response to this situation, Jiesai and partners jointly develop and build together, and adopt a win-win cooperation model to develop industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power plants.

3.2 Internet Access Mode Changes

Originally, more users choose the spontaneous self-use surplus electricity online mode with a higher yield, and on the basis of the component price reduction, I think the second half of this year will be a flashpoint for full Internet access.

3.3 Investment roof changes

Considering the convenience of settling electricity bills, they usually choose state-owned central enterprises or listed companies to invest. Small industry and commerce are ignored, but the return cycle of small industry and commerce is faster, and some places have introduced the policy of the national network to collect electricity, such as Zhejiang through cloud services to collect electricity, to solve the settlement problem, so the small industry and commerce market will also be an incremental point.

In recent years, China's photovoltaic all the way forward, and actively explore diversified development. With the rapid development of the industry and the emergence of many opportunities, Gootu has always maintained an optimistic and positive attitude towards the development of the photovoltaic market, we will continue to be committed to the innovation of photovoltaic technology and the expansion of the market, and we will jointly promote the prosperity of the photovoltaic industry.